Posts with tag: house price growth

London House Price Growth Drops from 13% to 3% in a Year

Published On: June 23, 2017 at 9:54 am


Categories: Property News

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The rate of London house price growth has dropped from 13% to 3% in the past 12 months, according to the May 2017 UK Cities House Price Index from Hometrack.

Overall city house price growth for the UK is slower than a year ago, but average values rose by 3.5% in the last three months.

Annual UK city house price growth stood at an average of 5.1% in May – down from 8.8% in May 2016. Half of cities in the UK have recorded faster growth than a year ago.

Cities in the South East of England have experienced the greatest slowdown over the past year – London from 13% to 3% and Cambridge from 13% to just 2%.

London House Price Growth Drops from 13% to 3% in a Year

London House Price Growth Drops from 13% to 3% in a Year

While the annual rate of growth is at 5.1%, the index has recorded an acceleration in growth over the past three months, with average prices across the 20-city index up by 3.5%. This is the highest quarterly rate of growth for three years, since June 2014.

All cities, with the exception of Oxford and Aberdeen, have registered higher prices in the last three months. Large regional cities recorded the highest price rises over the past quarter – Birmingham (3.8%), Nottingham (3.8%), Newcastle (3.5%) and Manchester (3.3%).

House prices in these and other cities continue to rise off a low base, supported by a lack of housing for sale and low mortgage rates.

Hometrack believes that there is the potential for material upside in house prices outside the south of England. Price increases since 2009 range from 85% in London to 12% in Glasgow.

Regional cities are unlikely to see London levels of growth, the firm claims, but it expects the gap in growth from 2009 to close. Cities with growing economics creating jobs have the greatest upside, the index reports.

Birmingham (7.7%) and Manchester (6.8%) are examples of cities with sustained, above average price growth. A negative economic impact from the Brexit negotiations or an upward shift in mortgage rates remain the key risks.

In contrast, the London property market has recorded 90% growth since 2009. Affordability and uncertainty are affecting demand, says Hometrack. London has seen the lowest annual growth (3.3%) for five years, however, the rapid deceleration in price inflation is showing signs of bottoming out.

On current trends, the firm does not expect to see the London city index slip into negative year-on-year growth during 2017. It predicts annual growth to end the year at 2-3%. The challenge for businesses operating in London is lower turnover, it believes, which is the market response to weaker demand.

Some sub-markets within the capital, which covers 46 local authority areas, are registering price falls.

House price growth is between 4-6% in the lowest value areas – down from 15-18% a year ago. Increases are lowest in the highest value markets, where growth has been in single digits for the past year. Sub-markets with prices between £600,000-£800,000 are where small annual price falls are currently concentrated – for example, Islington and Hammersmith.

The Founder and CEO of online estate agent, Russell Quirk, comments on the index: “Demand for city living seems alive and well, despite the farcical political events of late. Other than Oxford, a city paying the price for its previous accolade of UK’s most expensive, and Aberdeen, which has suffered due to a declining economy, house price growth across the UK’s major cities seems to have remained stable.

“We are starting to see a real shift away from London in terms of the capital leading the rate of price growth in the UK, and there seems to be a growing transfer of power to the Midlands and the north. The markets in London and the South East, in particular, were teetering on an election knife edge, but the less than satisfactory result, coupled with signs that the London property slowdown is soon to bottom out, means that prices in the regions are likely to stay flat for the remainder of the year now.”

Is UK property price growth rising at an unattainable rate?

Published On: June 20, 2017 at 1:07 pm


Categories: Property News

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Yesterday saw Rightmove release data indicating that the average property price in the UK slipped by 0.4% in June, in comparison to the previous month.

However, would-be property investors should take these figures with a pinch of salt according to Jeremy Duncombe, director at Legal & General Mortgage Club.


Mr Duncombe, a mortgage expert, explains that despite the typical asking price this month dropping to £316,109, prices are still up by 1.8% on a yearly basis.

Despite this being the lowest rate of annual price growth seen since April 2013, residential property prices are still rising. However, there are concerns that in regions where affordability levels are stretched, less households are able to take part in the market.

Duncombe observed: ‘Although the data shows a minor decrease in monthly house price growth, on a year-on-year basis, house prices are still rising. Potential buyers are having to increase their borrowings, or depend on family members to help fund a deposit.’[1]

‘For many workers, price increases are occurring at an unattainable rate, with house prices now at a record 7.6 times earnings. For London, this is stretched to more than 10 ten times,’ he continued.[1]

Is UK property price growth rising at an unattainable rate?

Is UK property price growth rising at an unattainable rate?


A main cause for the increase in property prices is due to the fact that demand continues to outstrip supply in many regions of Britain. This once again underlines the need for new affordable housing to be developed.

Mr Duncombe went on to say: ‘Once the dust has settled in the newly-formed government, the task of building more affordable housing needs to become an urgent priority on the agenda. Building affordable housing in the right places will help first time buyers to take their first steps onto the property ladder.’[1]




House Prices Up on an Annual Basis in April, Show Official Statistics

Published On: June 13, 2017 at 9:17 am


Categories: Property News

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House prices rose by an average of 5.6% in the year to April 2017 – 1.1 percentage points higher than in the 12 months to March, show the latest official statistics from the Land Registry and Office for National Statistics (ONS).

On a monthly basis, prices rose by 1.5% in April, taking the average value across the UK to £220,094.

Regionally, the largest house price growth in April was recorded in the East of England (8.1%), while the lowest was in the North East (0.6%).

House prices increased by 4.7% in London in the 12 months to April – 1.5 percentage points higher than in the year to March. This is the first time in 11 months that the rate of price growth in the capital has risen.

House Prices Up on an Annual Basis in April, Show Official Statistics

House Prices Up on an Annual Basis in April, Show Official Statistics

These figures are consistent with data from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), which has reported negative price expectations in London for the 13 months to April 2017.

Looking at housing demand, RICS’s residential market survey for April shows that buyer enquiries remained low.

In April, the total number of seasonally adjusted property sales completed in the UK with a value of £40,000 or above rose by 20.3% compared with April 2016.

The unusually low level of transactions recorded in April last year was associated with the introduction of the Stamp Duty surcharge on additional properties. Comparing April 2017 to April 2016, sales fell by 3.2%.

According to the Bank of England agent’s summary of business conditions report for May, housing market activity was subdued on both the demand and supply side.

Regarding supply, RICS reports that new sales instructions remained negative for the 14th consecutive month. It also states that average estate agent stock levels remain close to record lows. Furthermore, RICS claims: “An acute shortage of stock remains a key factor underpinning prices for the time being.”

The Founder and CEO of online estate agent, Russell Quirk, comments on the data: “The latest Government data seems to portray a healthier market than other industry sources on the surface, with the monthly rate of growth bucking the downward trends seen in the previous month to climb 1.6%. That said, transactional volume was down on a month–on-month basis, and it is reported that both buyer and seller demand dwindled, no doubt a knee-jerk reaction to the news of a snap election.

“Although the events of the last year, particularly the changing political landscape, do not seem to have had a long-lasting detrimental impact on the UK property market, they have certainly stunted the rate of price growth.”

He adds: “Many UK homeowners and buyers for that matter would have been waiting for the election outcome to provide an air of stability in which to conduct their transaction. The reality, for the immediate future at least, will not provide that, and it is likely that the unpredictable swings in house price growth seen over the last few months will now persist for a while longer.”

The Senior Economist at PwC, Richard Snook, also says: “In the first set of numbers released since the General Election, the official ONS and Land Registry house price data showed that average UK house price inflation rose to 5.6% in the year to April, from an upwardly revised 4.5% in March (initially reported as 4.1%).

“This increase goes against the general pattern of slowing growth since summer 2016, as average UK prices leapt by £3,500 in the month, from £216,600 in March to £220,100 in April.”

Snook continues: “There was broad based strengthening across the regions – in particular, annual growth in London rose from 1.5% reported in March to 4.7% in April. Meanwhile, in Scotland, prices surged by £8,000, from £138,000 in March to £146,000 in April. This is the biggest monthly gain since this series began in 2005.

“These figures go against the recent trend of a Brexit-related slowdown that we predicted last year, but remain consistent with our guidance of 2%-5% growth in 2017 as a whole.”

Annual House Price Growth Eases Again, to 3.3%

Published On: June 7, 2017 at 9:54 am


Categories: Property News

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Annual house price growth eased again in May, to 3.3%, according to the latest House Price Index from Halifax.

The rate of growth recorded last month was lower than in April and is the lowest annual rate seen since May 2013 (2.6%). It is around a third of the 10.0% peak hit in March 2016.

On a quarterly basis, house prices in the three months to May were 0.2% lower than in the preceding quarter. This is the second quarterly decline since November 2012 (0.3%).

Month-on-month, there has virtually been no change in prices, at 0.4%.

Nationally, house prices in May were 11% above their August 2007 peak. The average house price of £220,706 is now £66,043 (43%) higher than its low point of £154,663 in April 2009.

Annual House Price Growth Eases Again, to 3.3%

Annual House Price Growth Eases Again, to 3.3%

The House Price Index also found that sales dropped by 3% between March and April this year, to 99,910. This followed three successive months when sales were above 100,000. Nonetheless, sales in the three months to April were 2% higher than in the previous three months.

The volume of mortgage approvals for house purchases – a leading indicator of completed home sales – fell by 2% between March and April, to 64,600.

Approvals have been in a narrow range between 64,600 and 68,600 per month over the past six months, suggesting that home sales are unlikely to change significantly over the next few months.

Rising inflation and weak wage growth, alongside higher Stamp Duty rates for buy-to-let and second property purchases, have weakened market activity, reports Halifax.

However, supply still remains very low. The number of properties coming onto the market decreased for the 14th consecutive month in April. This kept the average stock level on estate agents’ books close to historic lows.

Nevertheless, a rise in private sector housebuilding has been recorded. Private enterprise new build housing completions rose by 12% in the first quarter (Q1) of this year, compared with the previous quarter. In contrast, completions by housing associations were 5% lower. All completions are 57% above the low seen in Q1 2013, but remain 18% lower than their Q1 2007 peak.

The Housing Economist at Halifax, Martin Ellis, says: “After reaching a recent peak of 10% in March 2016, the annual house price growth has since fallen to 3.3% in May.

“House prices have again fallen over the past three months. Overall, prices in the three months to May were 0.2% lower than in the preceding three months; the same rate as in April.

“The fact that the supply of new homes and existing properties available for sale remains low, combined with historically low mortgage rates and a high employment rate, is likely to support house price levels over the coming months.”

The Founder and CEO of online estate agent, Russell Quirk, also comments: “Despite many predicting a second consecutive monthly drop in house price growth, the latest numbers by Halifax show that prices have, in fact, crept up ever so slightly during May, notwithstanding a marginal fall in the last quarter.

“The unpredictability of recent house price trends demonstrates the turbulent landscape that both the UK property market, along with the wider economy, have had to traverse over the last year or so. With the snap election looming imminently, the recent cool in price growth seems to be thawing and it is no coincidence that one of the overarching factors in the recent price growth slowdown has been a shortage of stock, more so than usual.”

He adds: “Tomorrow’s vote will be pivotal in shaping the future of the UK housing market. However, regardless of which way it goes, it is likely that the sector will receive a boost from the many home sellers and buyers who, until now, will have been putting their decision on hold until the election dust has settled.”

eMoov has recently accessed which political party has been best for the property market since 1970: /best-political-party-house-price-growth/

Which has been the Best Political Party for House Price Growth Since 1970?

Published On: June 6, 2017 at 8:12 am


Categories: Property News

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Ahead of Thursday’s (8th June) General Election, online estate agent has taken a look at which political party has been the best for house price growth since 1970.

The agent analysed historic house price data to determine which majority government – Labour or Conservative – has had the greatest impact on house price growth per year during their reigns across all 650 parliamentary constituencies.

When the Conservative government first took power in June 1970, the average UK house price was just £4,508. Almost half a century later, and today’s Conservative Government oversees a very different economic landscape. In the past 47 years, house prices have surged by 4,724.80% to the current average of £217,502.

But despite the Conservatives currently overseeing a housing crisis – caused by their inability to build the homes needed to meet buyer demand – historically they aren’t the best party for UK homeowners who want to see the values of their properties climbing. This, in fact, is the Labour Party, which has seen house price growth of 16.62% per year of its reign, to the Conservative’s 15.14%.

House price growth since 1970 

Conservatives: 1970-1974 

Which has been the Best Political Party for House Price Growth Since 1970?

Which has been the Best Political Party for House Price Growth Since 1970?

During the Conservative’s initial majority government, led by Edward Heath, house prices rose by 120.23% – 30.06% for each of the four years, which is the largest rate of growth per year to date.

Labour: 1974-1979 

Labour then governed over a slightly lower rate of price growth across a similar timeframe, split between Harold Wilson and James Callaghan, with prices up by 92.14% between 1974-1979 – an increase of 18.43% per year.

Conservatives: 1979-1997 

A Conservative government then followed for 18 consecutive years, first led by Margaret Thatcher, who saw house prices rise by 187.91% between 1979-1990, before John Major ruled the next seven years, pushing the total price increase under the Conservatives to 206.18% – the highest total growth since 1970, but an average of just 11.45% a year.

Labour: 1997-2010

Under the 21-year reign of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown’s Labour governments, the total increase in house prices hit 192.53% – a rise of 14.81% per annum.

Conservatives: 2010-now

In the past seven years, under a Conservative majority government, house prices have increased by just 27.31%, as the market has slowed from the extreme rates recorded over the last three decades. This equates to an average increase of just 3.90% per year.

Highest and lowest growth under Labour 

The constituencies to have seen the slowest rate of house price growth under Labour since 1970 are Airdrie and Shotts, Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, and Motherwell and Wishaw. All three are located north of the border in Scotland and all have seen price growth of just 13.56% under Labour governments.

The highest growth was seen in North Down in Northern Ireland, at 24.59%, with the top ten highest constituencies under a Labour government all located in Northern Ireland.

Highest and lowest growth under the Conservatives

The constituency to have recorded the lowest house price growth per year under a Conservative government is Pendle in the North West – up by just 8.39%.

Since 1970, the top ten lowest constituencies for annual house price growth under a Conservative majority government are all located in the North East or North West.

Somewhat expectedly, the constituency to have seen the greatest annual rate of house price growth under a Conservative government is Kensington, at 33.87%. In fact, the top 125 constituencies to have recorded the highest rates of house price growth are all located in London, the South East or East of England.

The Founder and CEO of eMoov, Russell Quirk, comments on the findings: “This research really isn’t trying to highlight that one party is better than the other, but more which party is better for the UK populace, depending on their current residential situation.

“All the major parties have attempted to address housing in the run-up to this month’s election, but have outlined very little other than the usual empty promises on building and which, let’s face it, has historically ensured a rapidly rising rate of house price growth in itself. One wonders whether successive governments have purposely sought to strangle housing supply to encourage value growth and therefore a tail wind of voter enthusiasm for their particular political colour at successive elections?

“Therefore, we thought it important that both buyer and seller alike have something else to base their decision to vote on, that was at least based on fact, albeit historical evidence.”

He continues: “If you are in the privileged decision of owning a home in the UK, Labour is the party to ensure your bricks and mortar assets continue to appreciate. If you are a struggling aspirational buyer, then on the face of it the Conservatives are marginally better where a lower rate of price growth is concerned and to better enable you a foothold on the property ladder.

“Of course, the UK picture will vary drastically when considering individual constituencies, so we would suggest looking at the wider data set to see how the two differ in house price performance for your local area.”

UK property values to increase by 1% in 2017

Published On: May 24, 2017 at 9:35 am


Categories: Property News

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A new piece of analysis suggests that UK property price growth will amount to just 1% during 2017, as the slowdown since summer 2014 continues.

In central London, where the slowdown has been more prominent, prices are predicted to fall slightly over the course of the year. Looking ahead however, values here could rise by 14.2% by 2022, according to the research from international real estate firm Knight Frank.

Property Price Rises

The firm’s research indicates that prices will rise across Britain by 2.5% in 2018, 3% in 2019 and 2020 and by 4% in 2021.

In the capital, with prices falling by 1% this year, values are expected to rise by 2% next year, 2.5% in 2019, 3% in 2020 and 5.5% in 2021.

Rents are forecasted to continue their steady rise – increasing by 1.4% this year, 2% in 2018-2021 to reach a cumulative 9.8%.

However, the report highlights the uncertainty surrounding the performance of the UK property market, such as Brexit and the slowdown in economic growth.

UK property values to increase by 1% in 2017

UK property values to increase by 1% in 2017


A recent slowdown in market activity can be attributed to a lack of available properties to purchase, which in turn has put more focus on the delivery of new-build homes across the UK.

Data from the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) indicates that the number of new properties being built over recent years has increased. This said, levels are still way below those required to meet current demand.

The report reads: ‘The shortage of housing stock available to buy coupled with ultra-low mortgage rates have put a floor under pricing across the UK, but the question of affordability is becoming more pressing in some areas, especially as lenders still expect sizeable deposits from buyers.’[1]

‘As the UK moves closer to Brexit, any economic uncertainty could have a knock-on impact on the housing market, especially if wage growth and employment levels across the country are affected.’[1]