Posts with tag: house price growth

House price growth set to fall to 1.5% in 2017

Published On: August 21, 2017 at 10:53 am


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The most recent report from Countrywide suggests that house price growth is set to fall to 1.5%, in comparison with 5% in 2016.

Then, the rate of house price growth is predicted to recover slightly to 2% in 2018.


Countrywide cites Brexit negotiations as the main reasons for weaker economic conditions as reasons for the more hindered growth, as inflation starts to eat into household incomes.

The firm suggests that interest rates are set to begin to rise very slowly from the Spring/Summer of 2018. A more cautious approach from lenders is expected to curb a faster rise in prices.

On the other hand, Countrywide says a lack of supply will continue to support the level of price growth.

Greater London is expected to see price growth fall to 0% in 2017, before increasing by 2.5% in 2018 and 4% in 2019. Following two years of falls, Prime Central London will see price growth of 2% in 2017. This is forecasted to be followed by rises of 4% and 5% respectively during the next two years.

For the South East and East of England, price growth is expected to slow during 2017 to 1.5% and 3.5% respectively. During 2018 prices in these regions are set to increase by 2.5% and 2% respectively.

House price growth set to fall to 1.5% in 2017

House price growth set to fall to 1.5% in 2017

The North East is expected to see no price growth this year, before increasing to 1% and 2.5% in 2019. Price growth in the North West, Yorkshire and Humberside and the Midlands is suggested to also follow a similar pattern of weaker annual price growth in 2017 and 2018, before rising again in 2019.


Fionnuala Earley, Chief Economist at Countrywide, said: ‘Economic conditions for households will remain challenging over the next year as inflation eats into budgets and interest rates begin to rise. In addition, fewer landlord purchasers and the later age at which people buy, is affecting the level of demand. But we expect the UK economy to recover and wage growth to pick up in response to global growth. That, combined with a continued lack of housing supply, will help to support house prices.’

‘The housing market is sensitive to confidence which will be affected by the outcome of Brexit negotiations and the implications this will have – particularly on employment.’[1]




House Price Growth in Scotland Outpaces England and Wales

Published On: August 17, 2017 at 9:14 am


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House price growth in Scotland outpaced England and Wales over the year to June, standing at an average of 4.6% – up from 2.9% in May and well above England and Wales’ 3.3%, according to the latest Scottish House Price Index from Your Move.

House Price Growth in Scotland Outpaces England and Wales

House Price Growth in Scotland Outpaces England and Wales

On a monthly basis, average house prices in Scotland were up by a respectable 0.5%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, against three months of falling prices in England and Wales.

The latest available figures for Scotland, however, do not take account of the post-election period, but, with transactions estimated to be up by 8%, they show that the country entered it on a strong footing.

The average house price in Scotland now stands at £175,941 – up by £7,779 over the 12 months to June.

Continued growth in Scotland is driven by the strong performance of its two biggest cities – Edinburgh and Glasgow – where prices were up by an average of 2.9% and 2.8% respectively. Both also saw solid annual growth, of 4.6% and 10.6%.

Given the difference in average prices between the two, this shows considerable strength across the market. Edinburgh’s £256,737 is second only to East Renfrewshire (£262,203, which also grew by a strong 4.6% over the month and 7.5% year-on-year). Glasgow City, meanwhile, ranks just below mid-table, with an average property value of £154,666. The city itself, but also East Renfrewshire, Renfrewshire and North Lanarkshire, as well as all neighbouring areas, saw new peak prices in the month. So, too, did the Shetland Islands.

Sales in both Glasgow and Edinburgh were supported by strong interest in affordable accommodation from first time buyers. According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML), the largest number of loans taken out in the first quarter (Q1) of 2017 was by first time buyers for flats.

More widely, prices are being driven by tight supply. In the latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), surveyors saw average stock sit close to an all-time low. They also reported a small increase in enquiries in June, but a decrease in the number of new vendor instructions. This is likely to continue over the next few months during the holiday period.

Across Scotland, 15 of the 32 local authority areas saw prices rise in June, led by East Renfrewshire (if Na h-Eileanan Siar in the Outer Hebrides is not counted, as prices rose by 9.1% on very low transaction volumes).

Annually, though, strength continues right across Scotland. Only four areas haven’t seen prices rise in the last year. East Lothian and the Orkney Islands lead the growth, both up by 12.2%, but with very different price points – £225,663 and £147,897 respectively. Midlothian, up by 11.1% to £207,430, as well as Glasgow, has also seen double-digit growth.

The largest decline in prices in June on the mainland was seen in Inverclyde – down by 5.6% – and, for the year, it was West Dunbartonshire. Already among the cheapest areas in Scotland, prices there are down by 4.1% to £108,079, although the price of flats in the area has actually risen by about £7,000 over the year, although they remain under £80,000.

The Managing Director of Your Move Scotland, Christine Campbell, comments: “With strong growth in both its biggest cities, Scotland’s market is on a strong footing, with first time buyers contributing to this increase in activity. The increase in transactions is also encouraging, but we need to get more properties onto the market if that’s going to continue.”

Alan Penman, a Business Development Manager for Walker Fraser Steele – one of Scotland’s oldest firms of chartered surveyors – adds: “It’s good to see growth at both the top of the market and in more affordable areas. There seems to be a particular hotspot around Glasgow – both the city itself and its neighbouring local authorities are all growing robustly.”


House Prices Still Increasing by 4.9% Annually, Shows Official Data

Published On: August 15, 2017 at 9:55 am


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Average house prices in the UK were still rising by 4.9% on an annual basis in June 2017, according to the latest official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Land Registry.

However, this is slightly down on the previous month’s average growth rate, of 5.0%. Although the annual growth rate has slowed since mid-2016, it has remained broadly around the 5% mark in 2017.

The average UK house price was £223,000 in June – £10,000 higher than in June last year and £2,000 higher than in May.

The main contributor to the increase in average UK house prices was England, where property values rose by an average of 5.2% over the year to June, to reach £240,000.

Wales saw house prices grow by an average of 3.6% over the 12 months to June, taking the average to £152,000.

In Scotland, the average property value was up by 2.9% over the year, to stand at £144,000.

The average house price in Northern Ireland was £129,000 in June, after rising by 4.4%.

On a regional basis, London continues to boast the highest average house price, at £482,000, followed by the South East and East of England, at £320,000 and £287,000 respectively. The lowest average prices continue to be found in the North East, at £130,000.

The East of England recorded the highest annual growth, with prices rising by an average of 7.2% in the year to June. The East Midlands followed, at 7.1%. The lowest annual growth was seen in the North East, where prices increased by 2.5% over the year, followed by London, at 2.9%.

By local authority, the Orkney Islands showed the largest annual growth, with average prices up by 27.9% to £148,000.

Low numbers of sales transactions in some local authorities and London boroughs, such as the Orkney Islands, City of London and Na h-Eileanan Siar, can lead to volatility in the series. While efforts are made to account for this volatility, the change in prices in these areas can be influenced by the type and number of properties sold in any given period.

The lowest annual growth rate was recorded in the City of London, where prices dropped by an average of 20.3% to sit at £724,000.

House Prices Still Increasing by 4.9% Annually, Shows Official Data

House Prices Still Increasing by 4.9% Annually, Shows Official Data

In June 2017, the most expensive borough to buy a property in was Kensington and Chelsea, where the average house price was £1.4m. In contrast, the cheapest place to purchase a property was Blaenau Gwent, where a typical home costs £80,000.


The Founder and CEO of online estate agent, Russell Quirk, says: It may seem a long time ago now, but many believe the market is still shaking off a degree of Brexit uncertainty – a stance that has been bolstered by the less than convincing political landscape that followed.

“Ironically, it has been those that prophesied the rapture of the UK market that have actually been the most detrimental to it. Those closest to the action, such as George Osborne and his outlandish claims of an inevitable 18% crash in house prices, have seen an air of uncertainty slow the market, albeit a tiny blip on an otherwise impeccable current medical record for UK property.

“A year on and, in contrast to gloomy predictions, an anticipative Schadenfreude even, we see that, in fact, house prices are nearly 5% higher annually, with the monthly decline in growth reversing and the market remaining one of the most robust in the world.

“The attempt by Osborne, Hammond and many others to talk the puff out of the UK economy and its related housing market were grossly exaggerated and in fact completely wrong.”

Shaun Church, the Director of mortgage broker Private Finance, also comments: “The property market remains above water, although prices are rising more slowly compared to recent years. The subdued market is partly due to a lack of new homes for sale and rising inflation squeezing household finances. However, fundamentals remain strong and there are few signs of the kind of drastic price correction some have predicted.

“That said, areas with a higher concentration of properties at the upper-end of the market, particularly parts of central London, have been hit hard by the changes to Stamp Duty and are experiencing sluggish or even negative price growth. Until the Government reconsiders its stance, the prime market will continue to struggle.

“Another significant factor in slower house price growth is the reduced demand from buy-to-let investors, who have been deterred by the recent raft of punitive tax measures. However, the fall in buy-to-let investment has been partially offset by the increasingly buoyant first time buyer market, as young professionals take advantage of the record low interest rates and softer price rises.”

The Director of Property at property stock exchange Property Partner, Rob Weaver, adds: “Against a backdrop of political and economic uncertainty, once again Britain’s housing market has demonstrated its resilience, with a monthly price rise of 0.8%.

‘’Despite a slight fall in prices in London, rises across every other English region acted as a cushion – painting a broadly positive picture for landlords, particularly those who diversify by owning property in different parts of the country.

“We favour a steady market, and we have been saying this for a long time now. Long-term, steady growth is far healthier than the significant increases of recent years.”

‘’At Property Partner, we are seeing many investors take a slightly longer-term view of the market, by focusing on properties that deliver a higher yield, rather than necessarily targeting high capital growth.

‘’Considering the housing market is in the middle of the usual summer slowdown, today’s figures are encouraging, and current and potential landlords should feel reassured.’’

Ishaan Malhi, the CEO and Founder of online mortgage broker Trussle, also reacts: “Homeowners worried about the prospect of slipping into negative equity will be happy to see a second consecutive month of house price growth. Hopeful first time buyers looking to get onto the property ladder will naturally be less enthusiastic. Despite interest rates remaining at rock bottom, younger buyers still face the gruelling prospect of having to raise a deposit of around £30,000, which is higher than the average UK salary.

“The surest way to boost homeownership among the younger generation is to build more homes, but aspiring homeowners could be waiting a while for that supply to arrive. In the meantime, the best bet is to make the most of Government schemes like Help to Buy and Starter Homes, while shared ownership could also help realise the homeownership dream for those struggling to find a way in.”

The CEO of buy-to-let specialist Landbay, John Goodall, continues: “Against expectations, inflation has held steady today, stealing the limelight from housing figures, which suggest that house price growth has now returned. Supply and demand remain severely out of kilter, meaning that housing affordability remains one of the most pressing issues facing UK society over the medium to long-term.

“The roots of the affordability crisis can be traced back to insufficient construction over the past decade, but a number of other macroeconomic factors are now also playing a part. Wage growth is struggling to keep pace with rocketing inflation, which is hitting people’s pockets and making it harder for aspiring homeowners to afford their first property, as well as discouraging existing homeowners from moving. This is pushing more and more people toward the private rental sector to house them while they save, so construction needs to focus not only on more affordable homes for first time buyers, but for the rental sector as well.”

We also have comment from Jonathan Hopper, the Managing Director of Garrington Property Finders: “After the previous month’s data showed a decline in London’s house prices, it’s concerning but not surprising to see a further – and more pronounced – fall in the capital’s prices in June.

“For years, London’s property market seemed to know no bounds, but, for two consecutive months, the capital has seen a deceleration in prices, forcing sellers to adjust their pricing in keeping with a new reality.

“There is a degree of inevitability about prices cooling, as house price inflation in the capital raced ahead of wage inflation for several years, but, ultimately, this situation was always going to be unsustainable.

“Across the country as a whole, house prices remained largely flat, although a few regions outside of London also experienced a slowdown in property price growth.

“Although the ongoing lack of supply has continued to prop up prices, in practice, there are many buyers closely watching these movements in the market and managing to secure weighty discounts.

“Sellers who are conscious of this, and are both pragmatic and flexible in their approach to pricing, are most likely to guarantee a sale in today’s market.”

Lucy Pendleton, the Founder Director of independent estate agents James Pendleton, also responds: “There’s the slightest hint of a two-speed housing market here, with the UK upping the pace of growth annually and monthly, while London touched the brakes.

“Perhaps it’s not surprising to see the London market, after such strong gains, buck the national trend and slow down a little more in a General Election month.

“However, the market is not lurching and there is still strong demand. The trailblaising East of England posting annual growth of more than 7% is an obvious sign of confidence outside the capital.

“There are headwinds, but it’s important to remember interest rates have not yet gone up, we still have the Help To Buy scheme and the more hazardous economic effects of Brexit have not begun to materialise.

“That’s why this isn’t yet a nerve-jangling tightrope walk between buyers and sellers attempting to face off against each other. Armies in both camps are dancing arm in arm and seem content with where the market is right now.”





Housing Transactions Pause for Summer Holidays, Your Move Shows

Published On: August 14, 2017 at 9:42 am


Categories: Property News

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Housing transactions have paused for the summer holidays, while house prices also stopped for breath in July, according to the latest House Price Index from Your Move and Reeds Rains.

House prices dipped by 0.2% over the month, taking the annual rate of house price growth to 2.9% – the lowest level since July 2013.

Annually, the average property value in England and Wales rose by £8,433, taking prices to £298,906.

Housing transactions slowed, dropping by an estimated 9% in July on the previous month.

Housing Transactions Pause for Summer Holidays, Your Move Shows

Housing Transactions Pause for Summer Holidays, Your Move Shows

Although there has been a slight slowdown in monthly housing transactions, yearly activity shows that regions such as London and the East of England are continuing to grow strongly.

Every region across England and Wales recorded annual growth, as demand for affordable property continues to rise. Traditionally, lower priced boroughs of London and cities outside of the commuter belt are beginning to see increased activity and transactions from first time buyers.

Every region in the UK still shows annual price growth, however, they all slowed in June. The greatest declines in annual growth were in Wales, down by 1.5% to just 0.2% for the year, the West Midlands, down 1.3% to 3.3%, and Yorkshire and the Humber and the South East, dropping by 1.2% in both to 1.5% and 3.5% respectively.

A slowdown in the South East means that it looks significantly less buoyant than its three neighbours. In the South West, prices rose by 4.2% annually, the East Midlands saw an increase of 4.1%, and the East of England, which continues to lead the way in England and Wales, recorded growth of 5.1%.

Nevertheless, something of the re-emerging north-south divide continues to be apparent, with the North East (1.1%), Yorkshire and the Humber (1.5%), Wales (0.2%) and, to a lesser extent, the North West and West Midlands (both up by 3.3%), recording weaker growth than the southern regions. Greater London, with 2.4% annual growth, remains an exception.

The East of England continues to perform strongly, with all of its unitary authority areas showing solid annual price growth, led by Southend-on-Sea, where values rose by 10.2%, and Luton and Bedfordshire (both up by 8%). The former two, along with Peterborough, also recorded new peak prices in the month.

Aside from Southend-on-Sea, four other areas recorded double-digit growth in prices on an annual basis: Rutland in the East Midlands, with the highest annual increase (12.9%), albeit on low transaction levels; Poole (10.8%) in the South West, which shows strong overall growth, with Bournemouth (9%) also particularly strong; and Pembrokeshire (10.8%) and Blaenau Gwent (10.7%) both bucking the trend in Wales.

Wales also bucks the trend when it comes to housing transactions. Looking at an increase in transaction volumes between the second quarter (Q2) of 2015 and Q2 2017 across all 108 unitary authorities in England and Wales, the top five are all in Wales: Torfaen (28%), Caerphilly (26%), the Isle of Anglesey (26%), Ceredigion (22%) and Wrexham (19%).

House prices in London dropped for the third consecutive month in June, by 1.5% – the second largest drop in over six years – but still remain up by £14,244 on last year.

This decline takes £8,913 off the average property value in the capital, but this still remains double the national average, at £602,849. The trend in London is a mixed picture, with 17 boroughs seeing prices fall last month and the other 16 seeing prices rise.

The top three boroughs in London still show solid annual growth, led by Kensington and Chelsea – the most expensive borough. Average prices in the district are £1,954,735, which is up by 17.3% on last year.

Of the top third most expensive London boroughs, eight saw prices drop last month, including all of the top five. The City of Westminster, with the second highest average property value in the capital, experienced the greatest decline – 11.6% – while the City of London, fifth in the table, saw the second largest – 8.2%. More significantly, the latter also recorded the biggest decrease on an annual basis, with prices down by 17.6%.

At the other end of the market, of the cheapest 11 London boroughs, six saw prices rise in June and only one (Greenwich) has experienced a decline on an annual basis. Just outside the cheapest 11, Lewisham also saw the greatest increase of the month – up by 2.4%. With the average value in Lewisham now £469,709, it was also the only borough during June to record a new peak price.

The Managing Director of Your Move and Reeds Rains, Oliver Blake, comments on the index: “Annual prices are still
 rising positively and regions continue to perform strongly, despite the slowdown in transaction numbers over the summer months.

“Whilst, as a business, we often see this at this time of year, the cause of the dip may also be down to the buy-to-let slowdown as a result of tax changes.”


The Premier League of House Price Growth

Published On: August 10, 2017 at 8:15 am


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With the Premier League returning this weekend and turning 25 next Tuesday, online estate agent has ranked the teams based on annual house price growth in their local area.

The alternative league tables also look at how some of the biggest footballing rivalries match up head-to-head where the property market is concerned.

The last 25 years

Over the past 25 years, the average UK house price has soared by 302%.

Across the 20 teams in the Premier League this year, the average house price stands at £272,447, having risen by 4.55% since the last season.

Although homes in Premier League locations cost over £50,000 more than the UK average (£220,713), the higher price of property means that growth rates are marginally trailing the UK over the last year (4.67%).

Premier League table 

When looking at this year’s 20 Premier League teams where house price growth is concerned, it’s Manchester United that returns to its former glory, with the highest increase in the league, at 8.58%, and an average property value of £262,997.

Although Burnley struggled to stay up after promotion last year, the Lancashire team is flying high where house price growth is concerned. The team lost out to the top spot by the smallest of margins, with prices having risen by 8.57% in the last year. Despite this, Burnley is home to the most affordable property value in the league, at just £77,525.

The North West also takes third place in the league, with Manchester City seeing prices climb by 8.08%. Leicester flies the flag for the East Midlands, with an increase of 7.76%, and newly promoted Brighton performs well, as the best team in the south, after prices rose by 7.12% annually.

The Premier League of House Price Growth

The Premier League of House Price Growth

Coincidentally, the two teams to open the footballing season in last week’s charity shield are also home to the lowest rate of price growth. A tough year for the London property market means that Chelsea and Arsenal are the only two teams to see annual house price growth slump below 1% (0.40%), with Newcastle heading straight back down into the third relegation spot (1.39%).

Footballing rivalries 

Arsenal vs. Tottenham

Despite Arsenal seeing the lowest level of price growth in the Premier League, its rival Tottenham has seen prices rise by 4.5% in the past year.

But with its temporary move to Wembley this year, it could be a different story at the end of the season, with Brent – home of Wembley Stadium – having seen growth of just 0.90% annually.

Elsewhere in London, West Ham’s new home at the London Stadium means that it’s enjoyed the second highest rate of growth of all the teams from the capital, at 4.11%.

Crystal Palace vs. Brighton 

Crystal Palace has also enjoyed better growth than both Chelsea and Arsenal (3.46%), however, Brighton’s promotion revives one of the stranger footballing rivalries, and the Seagulls come out on top, with prices growing more than double that of Crystal Palace in the past year (7.12%).

Man United vs. Liverpool 

As already stated, although Man City is home to the cheaper average house price (£161,611) in the Manchester derby, United enjoys the higher rate of growth (8.58% to City’s 8.08%) – enough to also beat bitter rival Liverpool, where annual growth stands at just 3.55%.

South Coast 

Bournemouth and Southampton will face off in the Premier League again this season, having drawn in their last encounter. It’s a fairly close run where house price is concerned too, with Bournemouth edging it at 5.26%, to Southampton’s 4.18%.

But, despite their fall from footballing grace, it’s Southampton’s traditional rival Portsmouth that has enjoyed the best performance in property terms, with prices up by 7.40% in the last year.

Newcastle vs. Sunderland

There was no Tyne-Wear derby last season, after Newcastle’s relegation to the Championship the season before. But, despite the Magpies winning promotion back to the top flight, the Black Cats were woeful last season and, as a result, will be applying their trade in the Championship this coming season.

House price growth in the two areas mirrors their respective performances, with Newcastle seeing prices creep up by 1.39%, while Sunderland has seen values drop by 3.30% year-on-year.

Burnley vs. Blackburn

Despite their fall to League One, Blackburn is still on top of Premier League rival Burnley, with prices up by a huge 11.47% in the last year, to Burnley’s 8.57%.

Cardiff vs. Swansea 

Although a league separates the two in footballing terms, Cardiff outperforms Swansea in the Welsh derby for property price growth, with prices up by 5.80%, compared to 4.46% in Swansea.

Oxford vs. Swindon 

Again, one league currently separates old-time rivals Oxford and Swindon, and, despite a price tag of £414,659 – nearly double that of Swindon’s £210,052 – Oxford comes out on top in both football and property terms, with prices up by 6.40% annually, to Swindon’s 6.05%.

The Founder and CEO of, Russell Quirk, comments on the alternative Premier League: “Although it’s unlikely the table will look like this at the end of the season, it does demonstrate that, while there are pockets of the UK currently seeing a decline in price growth, there are also areas all over the nation enjoying very healthy increases in values.

“It’s also interesting to see how rival areas are performing differently, particularly those in close proximity to each other. Although neighbours, Liverpool and Manchester are seeing different rates of growth, the higher-end London clubs have seen prices stall whilst the capital’s peripheral teams are doing well, and Newcastle and Sunderland are seeing opposite fortunes in price growth terms.”

How is your team’s property market performing?


House Prices in 9 London Boroughs Soar by over 500% in 2 Decades

Published On: August 1, 2017 at 9:46 am


Categories: Property News

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House prices in nine London boroughs have soared by over 500% in the past two decades, according to a new study by Halifax.

House Prices in 9 London Boroughs Soar by over 500% in 2 Decades

House Prices in 9 London Boroughs Soar by over 500% in 2 Decades

New transport links, rising housing demand and a lack of affordable supply mean that today’s aspiring homebuyers are facing prices up to eight times higher than they were 20 years ago, the research shows.

Halifax has uncovered the ten areas in the UK where house prices per square metre have risen the most since 1997. Nine of these locations are unsurprisingly in the capital.

In the east London borough of Hackney, the findings show that the average square metre price has leapt from £814 in 1997 to £6,942 this year – a huge increase of 753% in two decades. This has pushed the average cost of buying a home in the borough above half a million pounds, at £526,835. This growth is almost twice the 402% seen in Greater London over the same period.

Newham, also in east London, has recorded the second greatest increase, with average prices up by 676% in the last 20 years, followed by Southwark (644%) and Lewisham (618%).

The northeast borough of Waltham Forest saw the biggest recent price growth, with average values surging by 93% to £447,979 in the past five years alone.

The report, which compares house prices in 32 London boroughs and more than 300 towns across the country, measures house price growth in each area by dividing the average property value by the average square metre measurement of every home, excluding outside space.

The Managing Director of Halifax, Russell Galley, explains: “House price per square metre can be a useful measure for house price comparison, as it helps to adjust for differences in the size and type of properties between locations.”

Hove is the only area outside of Greater London to make the top ten list. Outside southern England, just 12 towns have recorded price gains in excess of the national average since 1997.

“Unsurprisingly, there are parts of central London that are substantially more expensive than anywhere else in the country,” says Galley. “Over the last 20 years, the gap between southern England, particularly London, and the rest of the country has increased substantially — a trend that has continued during the last five years.”

While double-digit growth has sent house prices spiralling in recent years, a gradual slowdown is being seen across London and the UK following a year of political and economic uncertainty. Wage increases have failed to keep up with house price growth over the last five years, so it’s no surprise that buyers have hit a price ceiling.

The latest House Price Index from Nationwide shows that the average house price hit £211,671 in July – up by 0.3% on June’s figure and 2.9% on July last year.

Do you believe that house prices can continue rising at this rate? Regardless, the latest findings from Halifax show that it’s great news for anyone who invested in London over the past 20 years!