Posts with tag: general election

The Housing Crisis is Breaching Human Rights

Published On: April 30, 2015 at 11:56 am

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A report by charities has found that the housing crisis in the UK is in breach of United Nations (UN) human rights standards.

The UN human rights commitment to provide people with adequate housing has been violated because the housing crisis is so serious. The housing charities highlight spiralling rental costs, harmful conditions in properties and increasing levels of homelessness.

The report also warns of “profound issues of lack of supply, increasing housing costs, lack of security of tenure and homes of such poor quality that they are unfit for habitation.”

The group, called Just Fair, is made up of Crisis, Oxfam, Amnesty International, Save the Children and UNICEF UK.

The report’s author, Dr. Jessie Hohmann, a law lecturer at Queen Mary University of London, says: “It is quite clear we are in breach of our UN obligations. It is possible to take policy steps to protect the most vulnerable and marginalised, but the UK government has decided not to do that. Since the 1980s, we have lost any concept of housing’s social function, and that is why protest movements are gaining ground.

“Without decent housing, you can’t experience an adequate life in society, but now housing is seen just as an asset.”1

In the 40-page document, Just Fair revealed:

  • Private rent costs are double those of council properties, at £163 per week. A quarter of renters depend on housing benefit to pay.
  • A third of properties in the private rental sector do not meet basic health, safety and habitability standards.
  • The amount of people sleeping rough in London rose by over a third between autumn 2013 and autumn 2014, and funding for shelters dropped.
  • Last December, there were around 62,000 families in England living in temporary accommodation. This is the highest number for five years, with a further 280,000 households at risk of homelessness.
  • The amount of families living in bed and breakfasts has more than tripled from 630 in 2010 to 2,040 in 2014.
  • “Exceptionally high” levels of homelessness and the rising number of families at risk of homelessness represents “a serious failing in the government’s obligations.”
The Housing Crisis is Breaching Human Rights

The Housing Crisis is Breaching Human Rights

The organisation says that the UN requirements to “recognise the right of everyone to an adequate standard of living”, including housing, can only be breached in instances of “force majeure”, such as natural disaster or war. Cuts made when the country is in financial crisis should be ended when the crisis finishes.

The shocking report arrives as politicians deliver their housing policies in the general election campaign. Chief Executive of Crisis, Jon Sparkes, says that the report “should be a wake-up call for all political leaders.”

Recently, Labour announced their rent controls proposal. Find out more: /milliband-gives-his-answer-to-housing-problem/. The Conservatives have vowed to extend the right to buy scheme to housing association tenants. Read more: /how-would-the-conservatives-right-to-buy-work/.

Housing protests have also emphasised the public’s frustration over the state of the property market. Read about the Reclaim Brixton demonstration: /the-purpose-of-brixtons-anti-gentrification-protest/.

The Just Fair report is critical of the coalition’s housing policies: “Problems in realising the right to housing are linked to a political climate of austerity, and attendant cuts to state social security and other benefits. The resulting situation is accurately identified as one of crisis.”

It also cites one of the most serious problems as the failure to build enough homes, which goes back to Labour and Conservative governments.

Some of the things worsening the crisis are the removal of bedroom tax, the “stark undersupply” of new homes and insecurity of tenure in the private rental sector, says the report.

Additionally, it states: “It should be a matter of significant concern that one third of households in the private rental sector are living in housing that is substandard to the point that it is unsafe or unhealthy.”

The report revealed that “revenge evictions”1, when tenants are evicted when asking for improvements, are too common, with around 200,000 in 2013. That is a breach of the UN’s prohibition of arbitrary eviction, claims the report.

Brandon Lewis, Conservative housing minister, responds to the findings: “We inherited a broken housing market after Labour’s housing crash.” He adds, “there is more to do”, but the Conservatives will provide 275,000 new affordable homes in the next parliament. 

Lewis continues: “Despite the need to pay off Labour’s deficit, Conservatives in government have worked hard to increase house building to its highest since 2007 and delivered 217,000 new affordable homes. We will ensure economic growth and stability to allow continued investment in frontline services for homeless and the vulnerable.”1

Labour’s Emma Reynolds says: “Under David Cameron, house building is at its lowest levels in peacetime since the 1920s, there is a severe lack of affordable homes, families face growing insecurity in the private rented sector, and there has been a dramatic rise in homelessness and rough sleeping. Labour will take action to tackle this crisis.

“We will get 200,000 homes built a year by 2020, boost the number of affordable homes built year on year, reform the private rented sector and we will set out a long-term strategy to tackle homelessness and rough sleeping.”1

Crisis’ Jon Sparkes explains: “Rough sleeping has risen by 55% in the past five years. This dreadful state of affairs is the result of successive governments’ failure to tackle the housing crisis, combined with severe cuts to housing benefit that have left growing numbers of people struggling to keep a roof over their heads.

“The housing crisis will not solve itself. We desperately need more affordable homes as well as political action to fix our broken private rented sector.”1

The report will inform a UN review of housing in England this autumn. The Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust largely funded it.

1 http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/apr/28/uk-housing-crisis-in-breach-of-human-rights

House Prices increased again in April

Published On: April 29, 2015 at 4:36 pm

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The latest Nationwide House Price Index has showed that UK house prices rose yet again in April.

An increase of 1% was recorded, which was significant due to it being the largest monthly rise since June 2014.[1]

Growth

Statistics from the report showed that annual price growth was up marginally from 5.1% in March to 5.2% in April. Average house prices are now £193,048. Robert Gardner, Chief Economist at Nationwide, commented that, ‘the pick-up in price growth has occurred even though the pace of activity in the housing market has remained fairly subdued in recent months.’ Gardner also noted that, ‘the number of mortgage approvals is still well below its long run average and 20% below the levels recorded in early 2014.’[2]

Mr Gardner then went on to describe the strength of the economy but seemingly slow pace of housing market activity as, ‘something of an anomaly.’ As a possible reason, Gardner suggests that, ‘it is possible heightened uncertainty ahead of the election is weighing on activity.’[3]

However, he concedes that, ‘there is no compelling evidence from previous UK elections to suggest a strong impact.’ Gardner believes that,’ healthy labour market conditions and continued low mortgage rates should help underpin housing demand in the quarters ahead.’[4]

‘Law unto itself’

Chief Executive of Dragonfly Property Finance, Jonathan Samuels, stated that the recorded 1% increase in April, ‘underlines the inherent volatility of the property market. It is truly a law unto itself.’[5]

Samuels believes that, ‘while mortgages are cheap, employment high and the cost of living low, people are far more cautious than they were in the past.’ He thinks that, ‘there is an element of caution and conservatism, in the market that perhaps wasn’t there before 2008.’[6]

House Prices increased again in April

House Prices increased again in April

‘People are more aware than ever that the property market is a double-edged sword,’ explains Samuels, who went on to sat that, ‘buying a property is not a decision that can be taken lightly.’ Samuels does expect activity levels to rise further after the General Election, but feels that, ‘2015 as a whole is shaping up to be a middling year for the market.’[7]

Imbalance

‘Although house price rises in recent months may seem subdued when compared to last year, prices are still rising well above the level of inflation,’ remarked Jeremy Duncombe, Director of Legal and General Mortgage Club. He believes that this is due to a, ‘surplus in demand which is outpacing the supply of new houses,’ and it is this imbalance that has,’ pushed up the average asking price in April, making homeownership a more distant dream for many potential buyers.’[8]

Duncombe does however believe that it is, ‘encouraging to see that political parties are talking about building more properties in the run up to the election.’ He went on to say that, ‘we need to ensure that house building remains at the top of the agenda throughout the next parliamentary term so a good supply of new properties is built and the issue is not forgotten about after the electioneering is over.’[9]

 

[1-9] http://www.financialreporter.co.uk/finance-news/april-sees-pick-up-in-house-price-growth.html?utm_content=bufferac29b&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

 

Double Election Could Stagnate Property Market

The high-end housing market has come to a halt ahead of the general election, as uncertainty surrounds the property sector.

Estate agents and buyers who seek out homes for the wealthy have admitted that the market for pricey properties has stagnated.

But there could be a bleaker future ahead, as the possibility of a double election looms. This could further put Britain’s luxury housing market into lockdown.

Managing Director of Rokstone estate agents, Becky Fatemi says: “It’s the elephant in the room, an absolute nightmare for the industry.”1

A second election soon after 7th May is not the most likely outcome, but with such a close campaign, it could still happen, says Andrew Hawkins, Chief Executive of political polling organisation ComRes.

The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition introduced the Fixed-term Parliaments Act in 2011 that set the period between elections at five years and marked the date of the next poll five years in advance.

Hawkins explains that this allows for early dissolution of parliament if a motion for an early general election is agreed by at least two-thirds of the whole Houses of Parliament, or if a vote of no confidence is passed and the Commons do not form an alternative government within 14 days.

He says: “The use of a fixed-term parliament is deeply unpopular; effectively it takes the timing of an election out of the hands of the prime minister and gives it to the opposition. Therefore, a second election could be triggered if the Act is repealed.”

If David Cameron loses narrowly, he could force another public vote. Hawkins says: “If, in the immediate aftermath, the Tories have secured more votes than seats, and Labour scrapes over the line with a coalition, then Mr. Cameron could immediately turn around and demand that the country deserves another chance at voting in a majority.”1

Otherwise, a minority party in a coalition could destroy the current government or at the Queen’s Speech on 27th May, a confidence vote could be conducted.

A second election or another coalition could greatly impact the unstable property market, especially the high-end London sector.

Research from Hamptons and Jeffries found that property transactions slow down around the general election, with prices spiralling at the time of the vote and in the six months afterwards.

Chief Executive of developer Urban & Civic, Nigel Hugill says that the decline in activity has been experienced in the luxury end of the market, with the annual growth rate for the whole of London dropping from 13% in the year to January, to 9.4% this February, which was reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).1 

Double Election Could Stagnate Property Market

Double Election Could Stagnate Property Market

Hugill, who is also Chairman of the Centre for Cities organisation, says: “The long-term property market cycle led us to a cooling in London, but two elections would place a further restriction on activity in the capital. London changes direction quickly and substantial uncertainty will temper it further.” 

Labour’s proposed mansion tax and plans to remove non-dom status will concern buyers, sellers and builders in London.

Hugill continues: “The SNP, Labour and the Liberal Democrats have talked gleefully about taxing property in London, but have been utterly unspecific about how to do it.”1

Adam Challis, Head of Residential Research at property advisers JLL, agrees that a double election will affect volumes and prices.

“Uncertainty breeds uncertainty, something that markets view dimly; expect to see currency depreciation, slower investment and a level of caution to permeate. In the housing market, I would expect activity to remain weak which will have a modest negative impact on prices, mortgages levels will stay low and central London will bear the brunt.”1 

After a quiet six months, the mainstream market in London has started to pick up again recently, as house builders Taylor Wimpey and Telford Homes have reported strong demand for new builds in the first quarter (Q1), and the Government extend their Help to Buy scheme and Isa.

However, a dip in the higher end of the market will affect the rest of the South East, as lack of investment impacts jobs and slows the rate households move from London to the commuter belt.

Property Analyst at broker Jeffries, Anthony Codling, says: “In the mainstream market, there would be a potential transaction lull as people put off moving plans until the shape of government starts to [become clearer].”1

Jake Russell, of Russell Simpson estate agents in Kensington and Chelsea, explains what would happen in the event of a second election: “A double election resulting from a hung parliament would lead to further uncertainty, a groundhog day, and in all likelihood, prospective purchasers continuing to wait and see.

“The property-related left-wing policies have far-reaching implications which not only target wealth-creators but close London off to international business and investors, undermining London as a world-class city.”

Russell also says that Labour’s non-dom plans would cause investors to leave the London market, “as the great business minds of the globe, alongside wealthy overseas individuals, seek to invest elsewhere.”1

Director of upmarket agent Rescorp Residential, Vic Chhabria, agrees: “For argument’s sake, let’s say a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition comes into power and it all collapses. I believe a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition would bring about a new wave of confidence and would very quickly act as a catalyst for a bounce-back of the housing industry.

“If a time lag for the double election exceeds the gestation period and the Labour-Lib Dems have already enforced legislation on all their levies and taxes, my fear is that the recovery of the housing market will be too little and too late.”1 

By this stage, those with non-dom status may have already chosen alternative tax jurisdictions and have no intention of returning to the UK, says Chhabria.

Lawyers organising multi-million pound sales are also concerned. A partner at Charles Russell Speechlys, Tom Moran, says: “Uncertainty is the killer in the short term. In the long term, the danger is that what has been a flourishing and prestigious property market will be permanently damaged.

“If the UK decides to punish the overseas buyer, the overseas buyer may decide to invest their significant capital in other economies, with all the impact on the sophisticated service economy in London and southern England that would entail.”1

1 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/house-prices/11565015/Double-election-nightmare-to-trigger-property-market-gridlock.html

 

 

 

Experts Reveal Which Politician Will Help the Housing Crisis

Published On: April 29, 2015 at 1:23 pm

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When Margaret Thatcher won the general election in 1979, her right to buy policy was one of the key forces that drove her into power. And approaching this election, housing is still one of the most important deciders for voters.

In December 2014, Chancellor George Osborne put homeowners at the forefront of politics with Stamp Duty changes; benefitting 98% of those moving home. Help to Buy was then extended in March, and the Conservatives’ policies have since focused on the generation of renters.

Labour have promised a Stamp Duty holiday for first time buyers purchasing homes up to £300,000, charging foreign investors higher tax and reserving up to half of all new builds for local residents.

But whoever wins the election, what will happen in the property market when the election is decided?

Six property experts have given their views of the pledges and promises, and which party they believe will create a healthy, sustainable housing market.

House building

In 2014, 118,770 new homes were built, says the Department for Communities and Local Government. This is less than half the annual figure required to tackle the housing shortage.

The Conservatives have pledged to build 200,000 homes for first time buyers by 2020, create more garden cities and release 400,000 new units from brownfield land.

Labour has also promised garden cities and 200,000 new builds per year.

The Liberal Democrats expect to build 300,000 new homes a year in at least ten garden cities.

UKIP have planned a £1 billion brownfield site transformation.

The Green Party vow to build 500,000 social rental units by quadrupling spending and allowing councils to borrow more.

Who do the experts believe?

Managing Director of Rokstone estate agents, Becky Fatemi, says: “The Conservatives have positioned themselves as friends of the property industry with plans already ‘costed’ out in detail. Labour has taken a polar opposite stance. Their plans for a mansion tax, abolishing non-dom status and allowing local authorities to compulsory-purchase unused sites from developers is likely to suppress new development and further cool the housing market in the capital and surrounding Home Counties.”

Russell Quirk, Chief Executive of online estate agent eMoov, adds: “Since taking office in 2010, the Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition has delivered a lower level of housing than any government since the Second World War; an appalling record of failure.

“Labour’s record has been better, especially in the 50s and 60s, but the Blair/Brown years saw a decrease in growth. The data shows that Labour is a better bet for house building, yet none of the promises of politicians of recent years has matched the reality.”

Professor of Human Geography at the University of Oxford, Danny Dorling, comments: “The UK needs more homes for three main reasons. Firstly, homes wear out. They don’t last forever. Secondly, the number of households in the country is rising, partly due to immigration. Thirdly, we are ageing and we need more homes suitable for people who are very old but located near to where the old currently live.

“Population numbers are hardly falling in any part of the UK, so building most new homes where there is the greatest demand for housing will not harm other parts of the UK because homes are not being demolished in large numbers anywhere.

“If more homes are to be build, a wider range of builders will be required to build them and not simply a few very large monopolistic giants working to maximise their profits. This will require government intervention to correct the failure of the market.

“Regardless of who wins, without that intervention, we should not be surprised if the building is slow.”

Angela Kerr, Director at the HomeOwners Alliance, gives her view: “The Liberal Democrats’ promise of 100,000 more homes than other main political parties is seductive, but the Labour and the Conservative packages make for more convincing reading in getting more homes built.

“However, believing any of these promises takes a leap of faith after decades of poor form.

“As well as a clear, strong commitment to build new homes in big numbers, today’s housing crisis requires political parties to facilitate building by private developers, local authorities and agencies by unblocking the planning system and releasing public land and brownfield sites.”

Independent buyer Henry Pryor says: “If you believe in fairies and election manifestos then the Greens will build the most homes with a promise to build 500,000 social rented homes paid for from reforming tax breaks for landlords, including scrapping buy-to-let mortgage interest relief. They also pledge to bring back 350,000 empty homes.

“Labour will need a full five years to get their plans on track, by which time it’s unlikely they will be building more than their competitors. The losers will still be those unable to get help to afford the high housing costs that no party has the political nerve to address.”

House prices

The recent increases in property prices should cause concern for the parties.

Due to low mortgage rates, homeowners are spending more, which boosts the economy. However, many aspiring buyers still cannot buy a home and therefore live in expensive, insecure rental accommodation or with their parents.

The Conservatives want to help the would-be buyer by extending Help to Buy and offering a discount to first time buyers.

Labour will give a Stamp Duty holiday to first time buyers on homes up to £300,000.

The Lib Dems vow to build 30,000 rent-to-buy properties.

UKIP propose a tax break on Stamp Duty for the first £250,000 of a new home bought on brownfield sites.

The Green Party would abolish Help to Buy, therefore reducing buyers and prices.

But who will help prospective buyers whilst tackling affordability?

Angela Kerr believes: “The Conservative Party is at risk of stoking up demand and increasing house prices with the extension of Help to Buy. But, if they can build the new starter homes in areas of need, the Help to Buy scheme and Isa is a great overall package to help first time buyers across the country.”1

Henry Pryor says: “The Conservative plans look the most likely to result in higher rents and freehold values. This is because their economic policies are most likely to settle City nerves and continue to provide confidence and stability, which in turn should help maintain low interest rates.”

Experts Reveal Which Politician Will Help the Housing Crisis

Experts Reveal Which Politician Will Help the Housing Crisis

Danny Dorling comments: “The political party that could increase affordability the most in the short-term is UKIP, but I do not support UKIP. If Nigel Farage’s party were to become a coalition partner and insist on far more draconian limits to migration then we should expect many people from the mainland of Europe to leave. That would reduce housing demand, and therefore prices, substantially.

“However, as the economy spiralled downwards when the young and productive left, overall ability to pay for housing and rents may fall even faster than housing prices. A vote to leave the European Union, as promised by the Tories, could do the same thing.”

Becky Fatemi says: “All the parties have policies to help make homes more affordable, but different approaches. Tory plans are much more market-driven, while Labour will empower local authorities to build social housing stock as they did in the post-war period. The SNP said it opposed the right to buy initiative.”

Russell Quirk adds: “The Tories have been twice as good at ensuring house price rises, therefore, homeowners should vote blue.”

The market

Soaring property prices do not mean a healthy market. Steady long-term growth is preferable. This is achieved by increasing wages, inflation, credit availability and rising housing stock.

The Conservatives propose selling social housing to pay for first time buyer homes, but they will need replacing.

Labour believes taxing wealthy homeowners will sort Britain’s debt, but it could stop money coming into London.

Who do the experts think will help the market?

“This is an economic consideration,” says Russell Quirk. “House prices do better as a consequence of low inflation, low interest rates and strong economies.

“The Conservatives win here. Labour will reel from its economic record for some time and many believe that a vote for Labour is a decidedly more dangerous proposition. A Conservative majority is the best outcome for the housing market.”1

Becky Fatemi believes: “There are many different housing markets. If the Tories win, there will be a huge wave of new developments and second-hand properties placed on the market. There will also be a rise in sales in the £2m-plus market and investors and banks will return to putting money into luxury housing projects. All of this will trigger a further rise in house prices.

“Under a Labour-led government, there will be a boom in new homes below £1m, and bankers and private investors will focus on backing projects that provide starter and middle market housing.”1

Henry Pryor explains his opinion: “I suspect that a coalition government will provide the most stable market, since the housing market fears uncertainty. There remain icebergs out there, the most frightening potentially being civil unrest. We saw in the 2011 riots what can happen when a significant number of people feel sufficiently disfranchised.

“But judging by the manifestos we’ve seen, it looks unlikely that one single party has an answer to their housing crisis, in the main because there is a significant, largely silent body of the electorate who isn’t convinced that if there is a crisis they want to be a part of the solution.”1

Danny Dorling concludes: “Whatever happens, it is likely to take many decades before the UK has a healthy housing market. A healthy housing market is one in which people are able to house themselves and their families securely and not live in fear of eviction or being priced out of the market, or fear that the value of their homes may suddenly drop greatly. It is not produced when a few firms dominate home building and have such great political power.

“The politicians most likely to create a healthy housing market are those who do not view the current market as healthy; likely to be younger MPs. The old guard were often able to use their allowances and second jobs to buy multiple properties in London.”1

1 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/11555890/General-Election-2015-Who-will-mend-Britains-broken-housing-market.html

More Demand for UK Commercial Property

Published On: April 29, 2015 at 10:58 am

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Categories: Property News

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The latest commercial market survey from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) has indicated that UK commercial property is very much in demand.

RICS’ statistics show that the first quarter of 2015 was the 10th consecutive period of growth in demand for commercial properties. Occupier demand for UK commercial property now stands at the highest level since 1998.

With the buy-to-let market also showing positive increases, the report indicates a more widespread reflection of overall economic recovery.

Confidence

Responding to the report, John Kent, executive director at commercial real estate company CBRE, said that, ‘despite general election uncertainty, there is a great deal of confidence in the market.’[1]

Interestingly, the survey also suggested that enquiries from overseas investors rose by 34% in the first quarter of 2015, up from 17% in the final quarter of 2014.[2]

Demand with no supply

Increased demand however has put even more of a squeeze onto the UK’s already struggling property supplies. Joshua Pater of Collins International remarked that, ‘supply levels are now at their lowest since 2007.’[3]

The report from RICS showed that available space did fall across all sectors. Retail was found to have declined the least, but both industrial and office space availability fell sharply.

However, many industry experts widely expect the property market to pick up further following the outcome of next week’s general election.

[1-3] http://www.novaloca.com/blog/index.php/2015/04/28/occupier-activity-now-highest-levels-since-1998/

London Could See a Price Bubble Soon

Property prices in London could increase by over 30% in the next five years. The housing market in the capital is staying strong despite uncertainty surrounding the general election, as the economy is steady and many want to live and invest in London.

Only a year after annual house price growth in London was at 20% in the year to June, a new report from real estate firm CBRE has predicted that values in the luxury and mainstream markets in the capital will soon surpass those around the UK.

The high-end central London property market has stagnated, due to buyers and sellers awaiting the outcome of the general election. The frantic activity witnessed in the mainstream market in the past 18 months has also steadied.

London Could See a Price Bubble Soon

London Could See a Price Bubble Soon

The study revealed that this slowdown is down to affordability worries and the effects of last year’s Mortgage Market Review. Read more about the impact of this here: /mortgage-market-review-causes-decline-in-buyers/

Bank of England (BoE) boss Mark Carney has also tried to limit the amount of high loan-to-value (LTV) mortgages, which has contributed to a “softening in house price growth.”1

Annual property price growth in London dropped from 17.8% for the year to the final quarter (Q4) of 2014 to 12.7% for Q1 2015.1

Jennet Siebrits, Head of Residential Research at CBRE says: “The slowdown is slightly at odds with the relatively healthy underlying economic backdrop. However, the market has been experiencing a mini-boom and is now cooling off.”

London has also been affected by political uncertainty, which has limited annual property price growth expectations for the capital as a whole and the high-end market to 5% for 2016. Comparatively, values in the South East and East Anglia are predicted to increase by 6%.

For average priced homes, prices will rise 5% each year in 2016, 2017 and 2018, before growing to 6% in 2019. Prices in the luxury London sector will increase to 6% in 2017 ahead of all other regions and the rest of the capital.

Both sides of the London market will experience 31% growth from 2015-2019, with house prices in the South East rising 28% over the next five years and 25% in the South West. The value of the average property in the UK will increase by 25% and the weakest growth of any region will be in Scotland at 20%.

CBRE predicts that London’s expanding population, the imbalance between supply and demand and more relaxed lending from mortgage providers to well-established developers will boost the capital’s market once the election is over.

A rise in prices will also be fuelled by momentum in the economy, as GDP growth is predicated at 2.8% for this year and Britain experiences record employment levels.

Siebrits adds: “We have seen increased interest from investors from China and Malaysia who have been drawn to large flagship sites such as Teddington Studios in Richmond.”1

It is important to note that these predictions are based on a majority government taking power or a strong coalition being formed. The possibilities of a hung parliament or two elections have not been considered.

1 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/11561724/Is-another-house-price-bubble-just-around-the-street-corner-for-London.html