Posts with tag: interest rates

Carney suggests interest rate rise is not imminent

Published On: January 20, 2016 at 10:10 am

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In seemingly positive news for buy-to-let landlords and mortgage holders, the governor of the Bank of England has moved to rule out an immediate rise in interest rates.

Mark Carney believes weaker than expected growth in the UK, coupled with ongoing uncertainty in the global economy. He believes that an, ‘unforgiving’ global environment means that more controlled monetary policy was not yet needed.

Backtrack

This assessment from Mr Carney comes just six months after he suggested that an increase in interest rates would come into, ‘sharper relief,’ at the start of 2016.

Many onlookers believed that rates would rise early in this year, bringing relief to savers who have been struggling with record low interest rates since the financial crash of 2007.

However, Carney’s comments suggest that rate rises are now a more remote prospect, with economists now suggesting there will be no change in interest rates until at least the second half of the year.

Carney suggests interest rate rise is not imminent

Carney suggests interest rate rise is not imminent

‘Last summer, I said that a decision as to when to start raising Bank rate would likely come into sharper relief around the turn of the year,’ Carney said in a speech at the Queen Mary University of London. He went on to say that, ‘well, the year has turned and, in my view, the decision proved straightforward-now is not the time to raise interest rates.’[1]

Gradual

Looking to the future, Carney said that any rises in the future would be small and gradual. He said that, ‘it is clear to me that since last summer, progress has been insufficient to warrant a tightening of monetary policy. The world is weaker and UK growth has slowed.’[1]

‘Due to the oil price collapse, inflation has fallen further and will likely remain low for longer. It has always been the case that, because the economy is subject to unforeseen disturbances, the precise path for Bank rate rises cannot be pre-ordained. We’ll do the right thing at the right time,’ he continued.[1]

[1] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35351217

 

BTL landlords well set to deal with interest rate rise

Published On: January 7, 2016 at 11:55 am

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Buy-to-let landlords in Britain are sure to be pleased with the results of a new survey by YouGov, which suggests that they are well placed to cope with expected higher borrowing costs in the coming year.

In addition, the study found UK landlords are financially resilient, with 75% of those questioned believing they would have no problems paying their mortgage, should a 1.5% rise in the bank rate materialise.

Planning

Over 60% of respondents said that their rental income would stay above their mortgage payments if a rise was to occur, with 40% stating that they already had enough cash saved to cover increased borrowing charges.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said that it expects buy-to-let purchases to dip in 2016, but with buy-to-let remortgaging remaining robust.

Data collated by the CML from lenders accounting f or 90% of new lending suggests that the typical stressed mortgage rate being used by the industry has risen by 50 basis points to between 5.6% and 5.7%.

Bob Pannell, chief economist at the CML, believes that landlords have a list of range of strategies for coping with increased mortgage costs. He says that these include the positive cash flow provided by rental payments and access to stored contingency funds.

Dampening

Mr Pannell also pointed out that the number of upcoming tax measures announced in recent months are likely to have a dampening effect on the sector’s future growth prospects.

‘The reduction of tax reliefs available to private landlords from 2017/18 onwards, announced by the chancellor in the summer 2015 Budget, will adversely affect the future cash flows for affected landlords,’ Pannell noted.[1]

He went on to say that, ‘landlords should be able to mitigate the direct financial impact in a number of ways,’ before claiming that, ‘the YouGov research corroborates our view that the overall impact will be to lift rents higher and to narrow the availability of homes in the private rented sector.’[1]

‘The direct effects appear modest, but are likely to be reinforced by the stamp duty changes, announced in the chancellor’s autumn statement. The rapid succession of recent tax changes also risks having a significant indirect effect on investor sentiment, altering the direction of travel for buy to let lending and the further expansion of the private rented sector,’ he continued.[1]

BTL landlords well set to deal with interest rate rise

BTL landlords well set to deal with interest rate rise

Future

Statistics from the CML’s latest market forecasts suggest that house purchase activity from buy-to-let landlords will slip in 2016-17. With the significant lags in Government housing initiatives moving to improve further housing supply, questions are being asked about the future of rental accommodation.

‘In this context, macro-prudential intervention, if or when it is applied to buy-to-let lending, carries a significant risk of unintended consequences for the wider housing market. We will continue to work closely with the Bank of England, to reinforce its understanding of the sector and to ensure very careful calibration of any forthcoming measures,’ Pannell concluded.[1]

[1] http://www.propertywire.com/news/europe/uk-buy-let-landlords-2016010611398.html

 

 

 

Mortgage Lending Up 17% Over the Year

Published On: December 1, 2015 at 10:00 am

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The amount of mortgage approvals increased to 69,630 in October, up slightly from 69,012 in September, according to the Bank of England (BoE).

October’s number is also higher than the 68,099 average recorded over the past six months.

Mortgage Lending Up 17% Over the Year

Mortgage Lending Up 17% Over the Year

The value of new mortgage approvals reached £12.2 billion. Analysts had predicted 70,000 mortgage approvals for October, but the slightly lower figure was still 17.2% up on October 2014, from 59,423.

Chief Economist at IHS Global Insight, Howard Archer, says mortgage values are rising as house prices continue to increase.

He continues: “While housing market activity has clearly picked up appreciably overall during 2015, the slight easing back in mortgage approvals for house purchases from August’s peak levels could possibly reflect housing market activity being constrained by a shortage of properties on the market.

“It is also evident that mortgage activity has been lifted in recent months by people looking to tie in attractive mortgage interest rates before interest rates start to rise.”1

The amount of remortgaging approvals dropped to 39,629, from around 41,000 in September. However, October’s figure still sits ahead of the six-month average of 38,430.

Total lending to individuals grew by £4.8 billion in October, higher than the average monthly increase of £4.1 billion for the last six months.

CEO of Marsh & Parsons, Peter Rollings, comments on the BoE’s data: “Lending has rebounded after September’s downward blip and mortgage approvals have leaped an impressive 17% year-on-year.

“All the vitals are looking strong, and remortgaging and locking into long-term deals will still very much be the name of the game for many existing homeowners awaiting potential interest rate movement in 2016.

“These figures only look at October, and George Osborne’s package of housing announcements in the Autumn Statement last week will have keyed up a new wave of first time buyers eager to get their foot in the door.

“We may also see a winter flurry of buy-to-let borrowing before April’s Stamp Duty shake-up, as landlords seek to invest before the additional charge is levied on second homes.

“The big question as we enter the New Year is whether the supply of homes will match the increasing demand that’s clearly evident in the mortgage market.”2

In a separate study, the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) found that house sales to first time buyers accounted for 31% of sales in October, the highest proportion since August 2009.

It also reported that inventory increased by 16% month-on-month, up from 37 properties per branch to 43. However, it said that demand fell for the fourth consecutive month.

The NAEA revealed that there was an average of nine sales per estate agent branch in October.

1 http://www.cityam.com/229859/mortgage-lending-rose-in-october-according-to-the-latest-bank-of-england-credit-report 

2 http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/mortgage-approvals-for-house-purchase-up-17-in-a-year-says-bank/

 

Buy-to-Let Tax Changes will Push Rents Up

Published On: November 26, 2015 at 1:10 pm

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Buy-to-Let Tax Changes will Push Rents Up

Buy-to-Let Tax Changes will Push Rents Up

Over two thirds of landlords believe that changes to buy-to-let mortgage interest tax relief will cause rents to rise, according to a survey by the Deposit Protection Service (DPS).

In the summer Budget, Chancellor George Osborne revealed plans to cut the amount of tax relief available for interest on buy-to-let mortgages.

The study, of 4,480 landlords, found that 69% believe the changes will push rents up, with more than a third stating that they are considering leaving the private rental sector. 35% said they might sell their rental properties.

Managing Director of the TDS, Julian Foster, comments on the findings: “Many landlords are currently facing a double-whammy of tax changes that could lead to increased rent for tenants – forcing them to sell or leave the rental market.

“Many landlords are small businessmen and women or accidental landlords, and taxation increases can affect their livelihoods and financial wellbeing.

“With many commentators predicting an interest rate rise next year, landlords are facing a series of financial challenges over the next few years.”1 

A future interest rate rise is also likely to have an impact on landlords’ finances, with 33% of respondents saying that they would pass on these costs to their tenants.

Around two thirds (62%) of landlords also said that they would be worse off due to changes to wear and tear tax relief.

From April next year, the automatic 10% tax break for wear and tear will be cut and replaced with tax deductions for the actual cost of replacing or repairing a property’s contents.

Do you agree with the findings of the survey?

1 https://www.landlordtoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2015/11/landlord-tax-changes-will-lead-to-rent-increases-says-survey

Tips for would-be Buy-to-Let landlords

Published On: November 15, 2015 at 9:31 am

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Deciding to invest in property is nowhere near as simple as choosing a home, a tenant and then watching the rental returns roll in.

20% of UK homes are now owned by private landlords, with 2 million people choosing to invest in residential housing. The possibility of a regular working income, subsidised by a substantial rental yield, is continuing to tempt more first-time landlords into the market. Rising interest rates and the improving economic climate are also making long-term investment in property a viable proposition.

However, achieving gains from property investment is not a foregone conclusion. Would-be landlords must be sure to carefully consider a number of factors in order to set-up the best possible chance of successful investment:

Affordability

Budgeting

The first consideration for potential landlords is to work out a reasonable budget. There is little point in approaching an estate agent or mortgage lender if a landlord cannot provide proof of finances and suitable planning.

A good start is for landlords to consider the current monthly cost of a mortgage. Savvy landlords should also consider how much any changes in interest rates, which are widely expected to rise during this year, would affect this initial forecast.

A sensible next step is to consider additional costs that will need to be paid. These include

  • tax on all rental income
  • necessary insurance
  • agent fees
  • compulsory inspection fees
  • remortgaging costs, in the event of a fixed-term mortgage
  • other maintenance costs

Maintenance costs

Of course, it is impossible for landlords to predict when features such as washing machines or boilers will stop working. However, landlords that put aside emergency funds for this kind of eventuality will be better prepared.

Additionally, landlords should be prepared to undertake small maintenance measures, such as giving the walls a lick of paint, and the end/beginning of all tenancy agreements.

Void Periods

The Association of Residential Letting Agencies suggests that typically, a privately rented property can lay vacant for 20 days per annum. This can be down to landlords simply being unable to find a suitable tenant. However, void periods are sometimes necessary in allowing landlords to undertake essential maintenance work. In both instances, landlords must make sure they have budgeted enough to cope without a rental income.

Tips for would-be Buy-to-Let landlords

Tips for would-be Buy-to-Let landlords

Problem tenants

Unfortunately, landlords may well have problem tenants to contend with. This could lead to a tenant refusing to pay rent for one or more months. Legal steps or simple deferment arrangements with a tenant both take time and incur costs, so landlords must make sure there are prepared to cope financially.

Many property investors are guilty of believing that rent will need to be up around 125% of mortgage payments in order to just break even. This is not the case and landlords should work out their own calculations for each individual property.

Location

When a suitable budget has been carefully worked out, the next major choice facing potential landlords is the location in which they are to invest. Landlords should be clear-minded in two main areas when it comes to a location-their ideal investment area and the practicalities of owning a property in this location.

When choosing an ideal area, would-be landlords must consider where rental property is high in demand. Furthermore, an area with lots of appeal for specific tenant groups should be considered. Location is key for a number of renters and potential owners should consider this when committing to a home.

Buy-to-let investors should already have an idea of what their target renter group will be and should choose the location of properties around this. For example, landlords looking to rent out to students should look at homes close to University buildings. However, homes close to public transport links and the commuter belt can appeal to all renters.

Practicality must also be considered when making a buy-to-let investment. Many landlords choose to maintain the property themselves, therefore a property close to home is a sensible choice. Moreover, purchasing a local property will give the landlord a better understanding of the potential tenants.

Type of Property

With a target renter group in mind, landlords will be better placed to narrow down the choice of property that they are to purchase. For example, if a landlord wishes to rent to a group of students, they will need to look at investing in at least a four-bed property to accommodate friendship groups. Similarly, if the landlord wishes to target young-professionals, they could look at smaller property, such as a one or two-bedroom flat, with good links to public transport.

Returns

At the forefront of all consideration over property should be the potential investment returns. Of course, properties of different types and in different locations will offer varying returns. It is imperative then that landlords work out the sums for every property that they are interested in. Would-be investors must subtract their monthly outgoings from their proposed rental income. This must then be factored into the costs of purchasing the property, such as mortgage payments.

Once this has been done, investors will be left with a gross rental yield, where they can compare yields across a number of potential properties.

Selling on

This may seem a strange thing to consider when purchasing a property, but landlords must also consider the eventually of selling-on their investment. A good history of rental could see landlords being able to easily sell-on their property. However, properties that have been on the market for a considerable amount of time could be a warning for investors that they too may face a tough-sell when coming to move on from their particular house.

 

 

House price confidence unwavering

Published On: October 5, 2015 at 12:29 pm

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An encouraging new report from the Halifax indicates that house price confidence is undeterred by the threat of interest rate rises.

The number of people who expect both mortgage and savings rates to be greater in 12 months time increased during the third quarter of 2015. Latest Tracker data shows 58% of homeowners believe mortgage interest levels will be higher, in comparison to 48% in Q2. 35% expect savings interest rates will also rise in the next year, up from 26% in the second quarter of this year.[1]

Optimism

Annual house price inflation currently stands at 9%, with the average UK house price at £204,674. House price optimism has risen slightly, from 63% in Q2 to 64% in Q3. 68% of Britons now expect the average property price to be higher in 12 months’ time, with just 5% believing that it will be lower.[1]

In addition, there has been a drop in the proportion of British property owners that think it will be a good time to buy in one years’ time, slipping to 53% from 56%. There has also been a fall in selling sentiment, with people who feel that the next 12 months represents a good time to purchase homes down to 52% from 59%.[1]

Barriers

Raising a deposit was still found to be the top barrier for those looking to purchase a home, with 57% citing this as the main reason. Job security (42%) and household finance (36%) were the next most common barriers.[1]

Despite house prices continuing to rise, the percentage of people stating that house prices are too high has dropped to 31% from 35% during the last three months. Homeowners who cite possible interest rate rises as a barrier to buying a new home have dropped to 14% from 16% in Q2.[1]

By region, Londoners have a low buying sentiment, with just 40% saying that they feel the next year will be a good time to buy. By contrast, 77% of people in Scotland and 58% in the North of England feel that the next 12 months represents a good period to purchase property.[1]

House price confidence unwavering

House price confidence unwavering

However, 64% of Londoners believe that the next 12 months will be a good time to sell, in comparison to 48% in Scotland, 47% in the North and 43% in the Midlands.[1]

Expectations

Craig McKinlay, Mortgage Director at the Halifax, stated that, ‘while economic optimism appears to have tailed off in the last quarter, house prices have continued to increase and the underlying pace of house price growth is strong. This has helped to maintain the expectation that house prices will continue to rise, despite more people expecting interest rate rises in the next 12 months.’[1]

‘The factors behind the upward pressure on house prices include the continued lack of second-hand properties for sales on the market and the availability of low mortgage rates. Without an increase in supply, it’s likely to mean that house price growth continues to be robust in the short-term, even if interest rates eventually begin to increase,’ McKinlay added.[1]

[1] http://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/property/house-price-confidence-remains-high.html