The plans to cut buy-to-let landlords’ tax breaks, announced in the summer Budget, are likely to push investors out of the market, believes Savills.
In a recent report, the property firm states that landlords’ earnings will drop substantially.
Savills predicts that a landlord with a 70% loan-to-value (LTV) mortgage would potentially suffer a cash loss after tax, even if their property delivers a gross yield of 6%.
Its calculations reveal that the loss, based on a £200,000 home bought in 2020, could be £3,180 if the gross yield is 3%, £2,280 on a gross yield of 4%, £1,380 on a yield of 5% and £480 on a 6% yield. On a 7% gross yield, the landlord would make a profit of just £420.
In another example, Savills shows that a property today worth £214,000 on a mortgage of £115,560 and with a gross rental yield of £10,700 per year makes a net surplus income of £2,562 after borrowing, as tax relief on mortgage interest is fully deductible.
However, from 2020 – when the tax change is fully enforced – the value of the property will have gone up to around £255,302, and the rent up to £12,894. However, the landlord’s net surplus income after borrowing will go down to £949.
Savills’ report arrived at four main conclusions:
- Many investors will sell off parts of their portfolios and a “large number”1 will not expand.
- Some will move over to lower value, higher yielding sectors.
- Although the Government is pushing homeownership, demand for private rental accommodation will continue growing.
- However, private landlords may not be able to meet this demand.